[10 / 12] keystone review: the trump stimulus bill has suspended the deep fall of gold. Today, focus on Lagarde's first speech this week!

 

2020-10-12 18:47      from:Capstone    author:Jeff

Capstone Last week review:


In the past week, gold has maintained a wide range of fluctuations. Gold fell more than $45 last Tuesday, hitting a weekly low of $1872, after trump announced that he would stop negotiating stimulus bills until the end of the US election. The next three days staged a strong rebound, rebounded nearly $60, and finally closed near $1929, up 1.66% last week. Crude oil also performed better last week. Boosted by the news of Hurricane pressure and recovery of risk sentiment, WTI crude oil successfully broke through $41 last week, with a weekly cumulative increase of 9.68%; Brent crude oil futures also stood above $43, up 9.82% last week.



In terms of foreign exchange market, the U.S. index showed a weak trend, reaching the lowest level since September 21 last Monday, and continued to turn downward in the last three trading days, keeping close to the 93 mark. The euro hit its biggest one-day gain in a month against the dollar on Monday, breaking through the 1.18 level in the week, and then falling in shock. The pound also fell against the US dollar in volatility. After briefly standing at 1.30 on Tuesday, it turned down on Wednesday, falling below the 1.29 level during the week.



Today's analysis:


(H1 chart of Europe and America)

Europe and the United States:



European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. According to the September meeting minutes released by the European Central Bank on Thursday, the European Central Bank is likely to be more worried about the economic outlook than analysts had expected, suggesting more stimulus measures may be introduced later this year. In her speech last week, Lagarde also raised a loud voice, saying that it is necessary to maintain enough stimulus to achieve the goal, and should be alert to early withdrawal of stimulus measures. This week's speech may give more clues on the direction of monetary policy. Within the day, the upper pressure level was 1.1824 and 1.1872, and the lower support level was 1.1804 and 1.1766, and the above support level was mainly bargain hunting and long trading.



EURUSD trading strategy:



Strategy 1: bargain and long (10 points)

Admission position: 1.1814 stop loss position: 1.1804 stop profit position: 1.1824

Strategy 2: underperforming and shorting (10 points)

Admission position: 1.1804 stop loss position: 1.1814 stop profit position: 1.1794



Gold:



Judging from the recent performance, the overall gold price shows a pattern of high falling. From the perspective of trend, the rebound peak of gold price is constantly depressed. As the market has been numb to the known risks, the gold price has been under continuous pressure. However, as the market is worried about the uncertainty of the U.S. election, the technology level has been oversold, and the capital has poured into gold, causing gold to push up to the 1930 level. The MACD index below also shows that the driving force of gold to do long business has gradually increased, and there has been a golden fork, and it is expected to further increase in the short term.



Today's data:



China's M2 money supply annual rate in September

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech

Bank of England governor Bailey delivered a speech



[disclaimer]:

This analysis and trading strategy objectively describes the current market trend. Investors need to strictly implement the trend, light positions, stop loss! Can not be fully in accordance with the trading strategy as the basis for placing orders, only for reference!



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