Capstone:The UK and the EU have started a new round of trade negotiations on brexit, and the probability of brexit without agreement has declined!


2020-09-29 15:29      from:Capstone    author:Jeff

CapstoneThis week, Britain and the European Union began a new round of trade negotiations on brexit. In addition to the recent outbreak in the UK, what has attracted much attention is the progress of the negotiation between the UK and Europe. Investors are pessimistic on the whole. Although the probability of a failure to reach an agreement has declined, it is still too high.

Irish Prime Minister Michael Martin said in an interview that Britain's controversial internal market bill "eroded trust between the two sides.". The UK is moving towards an agreement free brexit, and trade talks between the UK and the EU are unlikely to reach an agreement. But the Irish prime minister insisted that he could build a strong partnership with British Prime Minister Johnson. "What I ultimately envision is a positive relationship between the UK and Ireland after brexit," he said. There must be such a relationship. "

More than three quarters of British companies (77%) want Britain and the European Union to reach a trade agreement after brexit, the Federation of British Industries (CBI) said on the 27th. Of the 648 business owners surveyed between August 26 and September 15, only 4% said they supported brexit without an agreement. "Next week, the brexit talks will enter the final moment, and an agreement can and must be reached." Fairbain, director general of the Federation of British industries, said companies were facing unprecedented challenges: rebuilding the economy from the first wave of the new coronavirus epidemic, responding to the resurgent virus, and preparing for major changes in UK EU trade relations.

Goldman Sachs said the market's bets on the possibility of a disorderly brexit have declined, with the probability of failing to reach an agreement being 30-35%, lower than the 40-45% probability last week. Under the "orderly brexit" scenario, the euro / pound target is expected to be 0.87, while in the "no agreement" or "disorderly brexit" scenario, the target is expected to be 1.00.

Although the probability of a failure to reach an agreement has declined, the market is still too high and tends to be tactical short of the euro against the pound. In recent years, a large number of British investment portfolio and foreign direct investment have led to an increase in the current account deficit. After brexit, whether international investors continue to be attracted by British assets remains to be observed.

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