[09 / 29] Capstone review: the US dollar fell sharply from its two month high and gold broke through the 1880 level!


2020-09-29 15:28      from:Capstone    author:Tony

Capstone Yesterday's review:

Gold remained volatile during the Asian session on Monday. After the opening of the European market, gold continued to decline, falling below $1850 at one time. It began to rise in the evening, broke the $1880 barrier overnight, rose more than $30 from the daily low, and finally closed up 1.07% to $1879.90/oz. Spot Silver Rose 3.46% to $23.67 an ounce. In terms of oil market, WTI crude oil continued to fall to an intraday low of $39.75 after the opening of the Asian session, while the European market rose sharply after the opening. The U.S. initially rose to an intraday high of $40.76 and finally closed up 1.16% to $40.56/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.68% to $42.48/barrel.

In the foreign exchange market, Lagarde said that inflation will remain in a negative range in the next few months, and will carefully evaluate all future data, including the exchange rate, and the impact of the exchange rate on the medium-term inflation outlook. Our policy support during the crisis is mainly along two axes: liquidity operation and asset purchase. The dollar index fell 0.32% to 94.27.

Today's analysis:

(H1 chart of Europe and America)

Europe and the United States:

The ECB said there were new differences in the ECB's Governing Council on future stimulus measures and economic forecasts. The ECB hawks hoped to quietly slow down the pace of purchasing PEPP bonds in September. They opposed the forecast that key fiscal measures would be excluded. The European Central Bank doves opposed Lagarde's words on the strength of the euro and the risks of growth. During the day, the upper pressure level was 1.1705 and 1.1737, and the lower support level was 1.1642 and 1.1595. The above support level was mainly bargain hunting and long.

EURUSD trading strategy:

Strategy 1: bargain and long (27 points)

Admission position: 1.1669 stop loss position: 1.1642 stop profit position: 1.1696

Strategy 2: short under break (27 points)

Admission position: 1.1642 stop loss position: 1.1669 stop profit position: 1.1615


The four hour chart shows that gold prices rebounded on the top 1850 line of the recent range, which increased the chance of a further short-term rebound pointing to the top of the range near 1880. However, such a rebound still can not reverse the bearish outlook of gold price, because the current oscillation range of 1850-1880 is under the middle track of potential downward channel, which is still a long way from reliable support of the channel down track. Therefore, if the subsequent gold price can not effectively break above 1880, it will continue to face the risk of falling below 1850. Once the price falls below 1850, it may open the door to fall near 1800. However, if the gold price effectively breaks through 1880, it may usher in further rebound space, and upward may point to resistance levels such as 1900 and 1920.

Today's data:

Final value of euro zone consumer confidence index in September

CPI in September in Germany

Annual rate of S & P / CS20 major cities' house price index in July

New York Fed chairman William Williams delivered a speech

Consumer confidence index for September

API crude oil inventory of the current week in the United States (10000 barrels)


This analysis and trading strategy objectively describes the current market trend. Investors need to strictly implement the trend, light positions, stop loss! Can not be fully in accordance with the trading strategy as the basis for placing orders, only for reference!

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