[09 / 11] Capstone review: Bank of Europe interest rate unchanged, Lagarde worried about the exchange rate is too high, today's fundamentals are light, focus on the Federal Reserve next week!


2020-09-11 15:02      from:Capstone    author:Jeff

Capstone Yesterday's review:

Gold fluctuated slightly in the Asian session of US $1945 on Thursday. During the European market, it rose to near us $1955. After the US opened, it rose to US $1966.29, a sharp correction of more than US $20 overnight, and finally closed down 0.03% to US $1945.60. In terms of oil market, WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly between us $37.6 and US $38 during the sub session. After the opening of the European market, the overall decline was to US $37.16/barrel. During the US session, it rebounded and fell again overnight, finally falling 2.09% to US $36.98/barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.12% to $39.74/barrel.

On the foreign exchange market, the European Central Bank announced an interest rate resolution on Thursday to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. The Management Committee expects that the main interest rates of the European Central Bank will remain at the current or lower level until the inflation prospect is firmly turned to the level close to but less than 2%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the impact of the euro's soaring exchange rate on inflation must be monitored, but she did not send any signal that monetary policy needed to be adjusted urgently. Affected by the deadlock in the UK Europe negotiations, the pound fell more than 200 points to 1.2777, or 1.8%, to a new seven week low and the largest one-day decline since March. The dollar index rose 0.13% to 93.37.

Today's analysis:

(H1 chart of Europe and America)

Europe and the United States:

The U.S. dollar index first suppressed and then rose. The U.S. Republican Party's reduced version of the anti epidemic bill failed to pass the Senate. Europe and the United States rose to a week high and fell back in early trading after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that although the European Central Bank is closely monitoring the exchange rate, it is not a monetary policy tool. During the day, the upper pressure levels were 1.1850 and 1.1909, and the lower support levels were 1.1800 and 1.1754. Affected by the decision of the Bank of Europe's interest rate, the upper pressure was relatively high, and it was mainly to short every high.

EURUSD trading strategy:

Strategy 1: short every high (40 points)

Admission position: 1.1868 stop loss position: 1.1908 stop profit position: 1.1828

Strategy 2: breaking up and doing more (40 points)

Admission position: 1.1908 stop loss position: 1.1868 stop profit position: 1.1948


U.S. data released on Thursday were mixed. Last week, 884000 people applied for unemployment benefits, much higher than the 850000 people expected by the market. But the producer price index (PPI) rose more than expected in August. In terms of technology, at present, the upper resistance is reflected in Fibonacci's 50% pullback position 1949 and the top high resonance level, and the breakthrough level is seen in Fibonacci's 61.8% callback in 1959. If the price falls below the wedge-shaped track, the lower support will see Fibonacci 38.2% callback level of 1939

Today's data:

Final value of CPI monthly rate in Germany in August

UK's 3-month GDP rate in July

Monthly rate of UK manufacturing output in July

Monthly CPI rate of August after adjustment


This analysis and trading strategy objectively describes the current market trend. Investors need to strictly implement the trend, light positions, stop loss! Can not be fully in accordance with the trading strategy as the basis for placing orders, only for reference!

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