Fx trading news: US February ISM manufacturing PMI slightly exceeded expectations, but global supply chain disrupted US manufacturing!
2020-03-03 11:10 from：CAPSTONE author：Jack
Capstone forex trading news: On Monday (March 2), Eastern time, the United States released a February market ISM manufacturing PMI data closely monitored by the market. As a result, the data performance slightly exceeded expectations. After the data was released, the short-term spot gold price remained basically stable at around 1600. Specific data shows that the US ISM manufacturing PMI was actually announced at 50.70 in February, with an expected 50.5 and a previous value of 50.9. Among them, the US ISM manufacturing employment index in February actually announced 46.90, with an expected 47.5 and a previous value of 46.6. Among them, the February ISM manufacturing price payment index fell to its lowest level since October last year.
The American Institute of Supply Management's ISM report shows that 14 of the 18 industries reported growth in February, and disruptions in the global supply chain have affected most of the U.S. manufacturing industry.
The analysis pointed out that US manufacturing and service industry activities both stalled in February as concerns over the economic impact of public safety issues continued to increase. However, other US data is relatively optimistic. The number of initial jobless claims has remained low. The US economy has now recorded 11 consecutive years of growth.
Analysts pointed out that although the possibility of a further slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter will not be ruled out, it is difficult to believe that the economy is on the verge of recession. The analysis pointed out that public health security issues have led to weak demand in industries such as tourism, as well as declining exports and disruption of the supply chain. Businesses are cautious about spending, fearing a broader economic slowdown and uncertainty ahead of the November US presidential election.
In addition, the manufacturing industry still faces challenges from negative factors such as a stronger US dollar and declining business investment. US President Trump criticized the Fed for cutting interest rates too slowly and mentioned that a strong dollar hurt exports. The downturn in industry and manufacturing is a major hidden danger for the United States. Boeing's drag on US GDP may last at least half a year, and weaker capital spending will have an impact on corporate expansion. Therefore, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to rise sharply.
Goldman Sachs, a well-known investment bank, predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month, and cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in the second quarter, reaching a total of 100 basis points in the first half of the year. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the joint efforts of central banks of various countries to boost the global economy will be stronger than one by one, so the Fed may announce interest rate cuts in the next few weeks in a coordinated manner with central banks. If implemented, this will be the first coordinated global interest rate cut since the 2008 financial crisis.
Analysts believe that the uncertainty caused by the global public health events of 2020 will also have a negative impact on US manufacturing in the short term, although the optimism of international trade has made the US manufacturing show signs of apparent recovery.
The International Air Transport Association predicts that, due to public health events, global passenger demand will decline for the first time since 2009. At the same time, Apple previously issued a revenue warning, saying that iPhone supply will be affected by public health events, and the quarterly revenue target for March will not be achieved.
Due to the highly integrated global manufacturing industry chain, uncertainties such as global public health events may have a negative impact on global manufacturing and are reflected in US manufacturing data.
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