Capstone Forex Trading Online Report:The poll results led to
2019-12-02 10:20 from：CAPSTONE author：Jack
Capstone Forex Trading Online Report:The poll results led to the rise of the pound, and the gambling shows that the Conservatives are more likely to win!
The possibility of the British Conservative Party gaining a majority of seats after this month's election reached its highest level since the election last Thursday, and the pound has risen sharply. A previous closely polled model showed that the party is likely to win the largest majority since 1987.
According to the model of YouGov, a polling agency, the Conservative Party led by British Prime Minister Johnson is expected to win a majority of seats in Parliament in the December 12 election, which is 68 more than the total number of other parties. Johnson has promised that if he wins the election, Brexit will be achieved on January 31.
According to Betfair Exchange, the chances of the Conservatives gaining a majority of seats hit 70% on Thursday, the highest this year. Following the announcement of the polls, the pound rose to $ 1.2953, the highest since November 21.
The foreign exchange derivatives market shows that although the Conservatives' prospect of winning is considered to be in the favour of the pound, the basis for the further rise of the pound is not clear.
This is partly because January's withdrawal from Britain cannot completely eliminate the uncertainty that weighed on the British economy, because it only marks the start of future negotiations on a free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which may continue for a long time. For a long time.
Demand for sterling put options currently exceeds demand for call options, as reflected by the put option premium in a one-month “risk reversal” portfolio spanning the election date.
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